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German Bundesliga tips 16-18 September 2011

Freiburg, who lost 7-0 last week play Stuttgart, who won 3-0 on the Friday evening match. You can still get better than evens on Stuttgart at 2.19.

Shortest odds come on Leverkusen v FC Koln as 4th place plays 15th. Leverkusen are 1.45 against Koln who are 8.85 and are the biggest odds available this weekend on the Bundesliga.

Hamburg, currently in last place, are perhaps surprisingly priced at 2.55 and favourite to beat Munchengladbach.

In this post you can buy the tips for this weekend’s German Bundesliga 1 for just £1.99. Or subscribe monthly to our betting subscription service. For monthly subscribers, the tips are shown here.

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Week 5 results

Week 5 finally showed a gain for the EPL; albeit a small one. Let’s hope this is the turning point now the season has been running for a few weeks.

The gain on the EPL however was not enough to offset losses on all the 3 other leagues which left a loss overall on the combined bets of 3.7%.

We’ve decided to refund all subscriptions paid in the month for any month where the combined tips do not show a profit. So, if you take the EPL subscription (or any other league subscription or combination thereof) and the combined tips lose in any month, you will be refunded your subscription in the first week of the following month. If the EPL wins in a month and the combined tips lose you will also be refunded. If the EPL tips lose in a month and the combined tips win then you will not be refunded.

You can see the results of the combined tips here.

Premier League tips 10-12 September 2011

Nothing beats the excitement of a full Premier League weekend, especially after enduring international football during the week.

Live on Sky is Bolton v Man Utd on Saturday and Norwich v West Brom and Fulham v Blackburn on Sunday. Not the most glamorous games by any means but they often offer up more competitive matches.

The standout games include Man City at home to Wigan. You can get 20 on Wigan, but that might not be enough the way Man City are playing. I hope you’ve got your fantasy football strike force lined up to make the most of that game.

Spurs are at Wolves. You might have fancied Spurs for that game but Wolves have started well this season. Spurs have had tough ties so far and are still looking for their first point. A visit to Wolves is no longer an expectation of a win.

Tips are sold on a post by post basis as well as the monthly subscription service. In this post you can buy the tips for this weekend’s EPL for £1.99. See the tips

This tip is available for purchase but you need to login or register first.

Spanish La Liga tips 10-12 September 2011

Some incredible odds on offer in La Liga this weekend. The two big teams, Madrid and Barca opponents are priced at 33 and 20 respectively.

More incredibly, Sociedad are at home to Barca and currently sit 4th in the league. It’s worth remembering that Barca did lose away from home last season – once!

Tips are sold on a post by post basis as well as the monthly subscription service. In this post you can buy the tips for this weekend’s La Liga for £1.99. See the tips

This tip is available for purchase but you need to login or register first.

France Ligue 1 tips 10-11 September 2011

Top of the table Montpellier are at home to laggards Nice on Sunday. Odds of 1.81 may be generous given Montpellier have maximum home points and Nice are yet to pick up any points away from home.

There’s a bottom of the table clash on Saturday as rock bottom Valenciennes visit Ajaccio who sit 18th. Odds of 3.12 on Valenciennes may offer value as newly promoted Ajaccio are yet to record a win.

In this post you can buy the tips for this weekend’s France Ligue 1 for just £1.99. Or subscribe monthly to our betting subscription service. For monthly subscribers, the tips are shown here. See the tips

This tip is available for purchase but you need to login or register first.

German Bundesliga tips 9-11 September 2011

With the ever entertaining international matches over with we can progress once again to European league football.

Germany’s Bundesliga has given us the best profit to date this season and so we’re looking again to see which matches could provide the big wins. The largest odds are Freiburg at Bayern Munich. Bayern are already in top spot but have lost at home already this season.

Current champions Dortmund host new boys Hertha who are still yet to win away. With odds on Dortmund of 1.47 compared with Bayern’s 1.19, they may offer better value.

In this post you can buy the tips for this weekend’s German Bundesliga 1 for just £1.99. Or subscribe monthly to our betting subscription service. For monthly subscribers, the tips are shown here. See the tips

This tip is available for purchase but you need to login or register first.

Improved algorithm and new rating system

We’re pleased to announce version 2.0 of our betting algorithm. This shows significant improvements in the key performance statistics used to measure the quality of our betting system.

At the same time we’re introducing a one number descriptive rating statistic for our betting system to enable comparisons over time and across leagues.

Value betting
Our previous algorithm backed or layed teams based on whether the market odds were over or under priced. However the amount staked was not dependent on how mis-priced the market odds were. Our latest algorithm bets more when odds are mis-priced by a larger amount and less when odds are close to our own internally generated odds. See the tips

Week 4 results

We took a loss in week 4 but recorded an 8.1% profit on the combined tips for the month.

The Bundesliga tips carried the other 3 leagues, recording a profit of 49.8% in August. The EPL tips lost 15.8%, France’s Ligue 1 lost 9.1% and La Liga lost 2.5%.

The EPL loss was disappointing coming on the back of a loss in May. Whilst both of these months were short months in terms of matches played, i’ve taken some time below to set the losses in the context of our historic results.

The current drawdown of 38% on the EPL compares to higher drawdowns for the existing algorithm in use of 45% in Jan-2001, 51% in Sep-2005, 50% in Aug-2007 and 40% in Feb-2011 (before the strong run in results to Apr-11).

In terms of matches since the last high, we’re currently at just 46 matches. We had a total of 167 in Feb-2011, 101 in May-2010, 180 in Dec-2007 and 244 in Jan-2006.

The losing run is partly explained by a high level of away wins so far this season whilst we’ve been backing perceived value at home. In this season so far, there have been 34.5% away wins compared with 24% for 2010/11 and 2009/10 and 29% in 2008/9.

Spanish La Liga tips 27-29 August 2011

Finally the Spanish decide to play football and we have our 4th league of tips.

Maybe Fabregas had a word with someone or took a cut in his wages.

Whatever happened it’s business as usual with Madrid and Barca being heavily favoured. Madrid away to Zaragoza are at 1.31 for the win whilst Barca at home to Villareal are 1.26. Villareal on the other hand are at 15 for the win. Yes, that’s the same Villareal who finished 4th in the league last season. And I thought Arsenal’s were long odds!

Tips are sold on a post by post basis as well as the monthly subscription service. In this post you can buy the tips for this weekend’s La Liga, 27-29 August 2011 for £1.99. See the tips

This tip is available for purchase but you need to login or register first.

Premier League tips 27-28 August 2011

Arsenal are 7.7 to beat Man United this weekend. Do I need to repeat that?

It only shows what a poor state Arsenal have got themselves in. Let’s hope they take a shot at goal during the short amount of time they’ll have the ball.

You won’t get much on Chelsea this weekend as they’re 1.22 at home to Norwich. Did no-one see those Canaries take a point from Stoke last week?

There are 4 matches live this weekend including Liverpool, Man U v Arsenal and Spurs v Man City.

Tips are sold on a post by post basis as well as the monthly subscription service. In this post you can buy the tips for this weekend’s EPL, 27-28 August 2011 for £1.99. See the tips

This tip is available for purchase but you need to login or register first.